Journal:My predictions for The 83rd Academy Awards

[StevePulaski]

Around this time of year I always give my opinions on who will win The Raspberry Awards and The Academy Awards. It's a fun little thing I do, and while I'm not spot on with a lot, I do get a few things right. These are who I BELIEVE will win. I dont pick one because I like it I pick one because I think they'll win. All in all, I wish best of luck to every movie/actor/actress nominated, and here I go with my list of predicted winners.

The predicted winner is in bold text.

Best Picture:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Best Actor:
Javier Bardem for Biutiful
Jeff Bridges for True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network
Colin Firth for The King's Speech
James Franco for 127 Hours

Best Director:
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen – True Grit
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hooper – The King's Speech
David O. Russell – The Fighter

Best Actress:
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King's Speech

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King's Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Best Original Screenplay:
Another Year – Mike Leigh
The Fighter – Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson
Inception – Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right – Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg
The King's Speech – David Seidler

Best Adapted Screenplay:
127 Hours – Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3 – Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
True Grit – Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Winter's Bone – Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini

Best Animated Feature:
How to Train Your Dragon – Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
The Illusionist – Sylvain Chomet
Toy Story 3 – Lee Unkrich

Best Foreign Language Film:
Biutiful (Mexico) in Spanish and English
Dogtooth (Greece) in Greek
In a Better World (Denmark) in Danish, Swedish and English
Incendies (Canada) in French and Arabic
Outside the Law (Algeria) in Arabic and French

Best Documentary Feature:
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

Best Documentary Feature:
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

Best Live Action Short:
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

Best Animated Short:
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary

Best Original Score:
127 Hours – A.R. Rahman
How to Train Your Dragon – John Powell
Inception – Hans Zimmer
The King's Speech – Alexandre Desplat
The Social Network – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Best Original Song:
"Coming Home" from Country Strong
"I See the Light" from Tangled
"If I Rise" from 127 Hours
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3

Best Song Editing:
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

Best Sound Mixing:
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Art Direction:
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Best Cinematography:
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Makeup:
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

Best Costume Design:
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Best Film Editing:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Best Visual Effects:
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Those are my predictions, best of luck to all the nominees, and all will be revealed February 27, 2011.

[Handsome Devil]

Black Swan for Best Picture? You're out of your mind. Your other picks are pretty dead on though.

[StevePulaski]

I started to rethink that as well. I finally changed it to The King's Speech. It's real hard to grade movies you havent seen. But you like my other picks?

[patface1979]

Hope Corey Haim is in The In Memorium part of the show! I'm still pissed the fuck off that they didn't show Farrah Fawcette in the last one but they show Micheal Jackson! he was only in two Fucking movies and one of them wasn't big part maybe the Academy would stop hating poor Farrah and give her a spot on this years In Memoruim!

[StevePulaski]

I really hope they give credit where credit is due for Corey Haim. He is my man!

[Handsome Devil]

Jan 27, 2011 21:02:47 GMT -5 StevePulaski said:

I started to rethink that as well. I finally changed it to The King's Speech. It's real hard to grade movies you havent seen. But you like my other picks?

Like I said, your other picks are pretty dead on.

Having seen both The Kings Speech and The Social Network (the two big competitors) I say the Social Network deserves it, but the King's Speech will probably win it. The Academy loves them some indie movies. The only hope for The Social Network is if they decide to cater to the masses and pick the popular movie, that also happens to be really really good.

As for the Haim memorial, I think the big ceremony (like for John Hughes last year) will go to Dennis Hopper. Yeah, remember him? There were a bunch of big stars, Corey included, that died this year, so they'll probably go all out with the memorial.

I'll put together a list of the films I WANT to win sometime later

[StevePulaski]

I agree. Dennis Hopper will be the big focus in this year's AA. Same with Harold Gould possibly. The Social Network deserves the win for "Best Adapted Screenplay". No doubt about that.

[Handsome Devil]

These aren't my predictions. These are the movies I WANT to win.

Best Picture: The Social Network

It was a tough battle between this and Inception. I feel I've been saying I liked Inception more because it had a bigger impact the 1st time I say it, and I appreciate its originality. The Social Network is just the better movie. It's perfect in every sense of the word.

Best Director: Christopher Nolan for Inception

He wasn't nominated. Fuck. That. Shit. Nolan's balance between big spectacle moments, and smaller, more personal moments makes him the best director of 2010. The way he juggled all the different times and places and managed to create a beautifully realized world is nothing short of amazing.

Best Actor: James Franco for 127 Hours

James Franco IS this movie. For 95% of it, it's him stuck under a boulder. Eisenberg and Firth both had supporting casts to take away some of the pressure. Franco just had himself to work of off.

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone

Until I remembered Natalie Portman, I though Lawrence was a shoe-in. Her tough, but also vulnerable performance was one that made Winter's Bone the masterpiece it is.

Best Supporting Actor: John Hawkes for Winter's Bone

While Lawrence is the most prominent, John Hawkes is truly the star of Winter's Bone. Teardrop is a scary, but also loving character that strengthens Lawrence's performance even more. He is truly a bad ass.

Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit

This is one category where I think you're off Steve. Not only does Hailee deserve this award, she'll probably get it. The Academy loves to give awards to young actors, especially ones that do so amazing.


That's all I got... for now.

[StevePulaski]

I agree, I was shocked that Nolan wasn't nominated. Inception seems like a ridiculously hard film to direct. But I want The Social Network to win for "Best Picture", but I can't see that happening. I'll be PISSED if TSN doesn't win for "Best Adapted Screenplay".

[Handsome Devil]

Jan 29, 2011 18:23:25 GMT -5 StevePulaski said:

I agree, I was shocked that Nolan wasn't nominated. Inception seems like a ridiculously hard film to direct. But I want The Social Network to win for "Best Picture", but I can't see that happening. I'll be PISSED if TSN doesn't win for "Best Adapted Screenplay".

The Social Network is a lock for Adapted, even though Sorkin barely used the book. Also, what's up with Toy Story 3 for adapted? I've heard it's because it's a sequel.

Anyway, I think the Oscars are pretty silly to be honest. They're so focused on politics that the actually quality of the movies/performances is almost irrelevant.

[StevePulaski]

Toy Story 3 is most likely there because it's a sequel and they had to ADAPT it from the first two. Just a guess.

[patface1979]

It's gonna be a toss between The Kings Speech and The Social Network! But don't put all your chips on The Social Network because remember what happend last year with Avatar being snubbed by The Hurt Locker! So I usually don't give predictions that much but I say it might be The Kings Speech and for Best Actor I'm gonna say Jeff Bridges for True Grit because he outdone film legend John Wayne's performance! I also go with Handsome Devil's pick for Best Actress, Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor! Like I say you should never place all your chips on the table at the Academy Awards because it's a real movie with alot of plot twist and perspectives it put M Night Samalyan to shame!

[Handsome Devil]

Jan 29, 2011 18:23:25 GMT -5 StevePulaski said:

I agree, I was shocked that Nolan wasn't nominated. Inception seems like a ridiculously hard film to direct.

Adding Nolan to the director's list begs the question, who do you knock off?

Not Fincher because The Social Network is an amazingly directed film. It's not as flashy as Fight Club or Panic Room, actually it's probably the film that's least recognizable as him, but there are a bunch of subtle things happening under the hood (the stuff with the Winklevosses especially)

Not Aronofsky because Black Swan is simply beautiful. The last sequence alone makes him worthy. Darren also stuck with Black Swan for awhile. He had many struggles getting it made I believe.

Not the Coens because, True Grit has so many amazing shots in it. It's pretty tame by their standards, but it is still an incredibly directed film.

The last two depend on your definition of "director." If a director is responsible for the actor's he/she directs, then Hooper should stay too. Firth is just too good.


I suppose the one we sub for Nolan is Russell.

Maybe the whole performance thing is what screwed Inception over. All of the director's above have at least one actor/actress nominated, if not more. Inception has none. More importantly, it doesn't deserve it. Everybody is good in it. But that's the problem, they're just good. Still a pretty significant snub, but I can think of worse.

[StevePulaski]

Jan 31, 2011 17:53:16 GMT -5 Handsome Devil said:

Jan 29, 2011 18:23:25 GMT -5 StevePulaski said:

I agree, I was shocked that Nolan wasn't nominated. Inception seems like a ridiculously hard film to direct.

Adding Nolan to the director's list begs the question, who do you knock off?

Not Fincher because The Social Network is an amazingly directed film. It's not as flashy as Fight Club or Panic Room, actually it's probably the film that's least recognizable as him, but there are a bunch of subtle things happening under the hood (the stuff with the Winklevosses especially)

Not Aronofsky because Black Swan is simply beautiful. The last sequence alone makes him worthy. Darren also stuck with Black Swan for awhile. He had many struggles getting it made I believe.

Not the Coens because, True Grit has so many amazing shots in it. It's pretty tame by their standards, but it is still an incredibly directed film.

The last two depend on your definition of "director." If a director is responsible for the actor's he/she directs, then Hooper should stay too. Firth is just too good.


I suppose the one we sub for Nolan is Russell.

Maybe the whole performance thing is what screwed Inception over. All of the director's above have at least one actor/actress nominated, if not more. Inception has none. More importantly, it doesn't deserve it. Everybody is good in it. But that's the problem, they're just good. Still a pretty significant snub, but I can think of worse.

Plus all the other ones aren't as HUGE as Inception. Not saying the others are tiny, limited releases, but Inception was HUGE at the box office. Plus Inception succeeds more in the auditory/effect department rather than the directing one. So it gets it's fair run.